Riding profile

Sutton and Cheam

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Sutton and Cheam: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Sutton and Cheam, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Luke Taylor

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 32.1%
  • Conservative 24.3%
  • Reform UK 20.1%
  • Labour 13.6%
  • Green 7.7%
  • Other 2.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereSutton and Cheam 32.1%24.3%20.1%13.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +20.4 18.9% +5.4 25.3% −5.3 21.7% −8.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
8.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Luke Taylor Elected Lib Dems 17,576 36.9
Tom Drummond Conservative 13,775 28.9
Chrisni Reshekaron Labour 8,430 17.7
Ryan Powell Reform UK 5,787 12.2
Aasha Anam Green 1,721 3.6
Hamilton Action-Man Kingsley Other 317 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,002
Median age
40
Employment rate
79.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029