Riding profile

Tooting

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Tooting: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 43.0%
  • Conservative 16.8%
  • Green 14.6%
  • Reform UK 12.6%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Green Reform UK
HereTooting 43.0%16.8%14.6%12.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +21.2 19.3% −2.5 10.8% +3.8 25.4% −12.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Tooting, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 43% vote share, against 17% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Rosena Allin-Khan

Sits with Labour

Since
2016-06-16
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
36.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rosena Allin-Khan Elected Labour 29,209 55.2
Ethan Brooks Conservative 9,722 18.4
Nick Humberstone Green 5,672 10.7
Judith Trounson Lib Dems 4,438 8.4
Andrew Price Reform UK 2,546 4.8
Tarik Hussain Other 807 1.5
Jas Alduk Other 370 0.7
Davinder Jamus Other 179 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,875
Median age
33
Employment rate
87.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029