Riding profile
Croydon East
The question
Croydon East: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Croydon East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Natasha Irons
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCroydon East | 31.2% | 22.5% | 21.8% | 14.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +9.5 | 18.9% +3.6 | 25.3% −3.6 | 11.8% +2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Irons Elected | Labour | 18,541 | 42.4 | — |
| Jason Cummings | Conservative | 11,716 | 26.8 | — |
| Scott Holman | Reform UK | 5,862 | 13.4 | — |
| Peter Underwood | Green | 4,097 | 9.4 | — |
| Andrew Pelling | Lib Dems | 3,563 | 8.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029