Riding profile

Croydon East

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Croydon East: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 31.0%
  • Reform UK 23.9%
  • Conservative 22.9%
  • Green 11.9%
  • Lib Dems 8.9%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereCroydon East 31.0%23.9%22.9%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +9.2 25.4% −1.4 19.3% +3.6 10.8% +1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Croydon East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Natasha Irons

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Natasha Irons Elected Labour 18,541 42.4 —
Jason Cummings Conservative 11,716 26.8 —
Scott Holman Reform UK 5,862 13.4 —
Peter Underwood Green 4,097 9.4 —
Andrew Pelling Lib Dems 3,563 8.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
108,869
Median age
39
Employment rate
68.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029