Riding profile

Lewisham West and East Dulwich

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Lewisham West and East Dulwich: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Lewisham West and East Dulwich, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 43% vote share, against 30% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ellie Reeves

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 42.5%
  • Green 30.4%
  • Reform UK 11.0%
  • Lib Dems 8.0%
  • Conservative 5.3%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereLewisham West and East Dulwich 42.5%30.4%11.0%8.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +20.9 11.8% +18.6 25.3% −14.3 11.6% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
39.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ellie Reeves Elected Labour 27,406 59.0
Callum Fowler Green 9,009 19.4
Josh Matthews Lib Dems 3,558 7.7
Christine Wallace Conservative 3,477 7.5
Marian Newton Reform UK 2,234 4.8
Gwenton Sloley Other 427 0.9
Katherine Hortense Other 303 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,960
Median age
36
Employment rate
75.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029