Riding profile

Dulwich and West Norwood

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Dulwich and West Norwood: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Dulwich and West Norwood, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 44% vote share, against 30% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Helen Hayes

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 43.6%
  • Green 29.8%
  • Reform UK 10.6%
  • Lib Dems 7.3%
  • Conservative 6.4%
  • Other 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereDulwich and West Norwood 43.6%29.8%10.6%7.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +22.0 11.8% +17.9 25.3% −14.7 11.6% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
41.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Helen Hayes Elected Labour 27,356 60.3
Pete Elliott Green 8,567 18.9
Leon Cook Conservative 3,873 8.5
Donna Harris Lib Dems 3,485 7.7
Gary Stevens Reform UK 1,801 4.0
Mike Spenser Other 296 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,649
Median age
35
Employment rate
79.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029