Riding profile

Dulwich and West Norwood

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Dulwich and West Norwood: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 46.0%
  • Green 26.3%
  • Reform UK 11.3%
  • Conservative 7.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.9%
  • Other 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereDulwich and West Norwood 46.0%26.3%11.3%7.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +24.2 10.8% +15.4 25.4% −14.1 19.3% −12.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Dulwich and West Norwood, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 46% vote share, against 26% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Helen Hayes

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
41.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Helen Hayes Elected Labour 27,356 60.3 —
Pete Elliott Green 8,567 18.9 —
Leon Cook Conservative 3,873 8.5 —
Donna Harris Lib Dems 3,485 7.7 —
Gary Stevens Reform UK 1,801 4.0 —
Mike Spenser Other 296 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,649
Median age
35
Employment rate
79.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029