Riding profile

Peckham

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Peckham: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 44.2%
  • Green 26.9%
  • Reform UK 11.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.7%
  • Conservative 5.5%
  • Other 5.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HerePeckham 44.2%26.9%11.5%6.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +22.4 10.8% +16.1 25.4% −13.9 11.4% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Peckham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 44% vote share, against 27% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Miatta Fahnbulleh

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
39.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Miatta Fahnbulleh Elected Labour 22,813 58.8
Claire Sheppard Green 7,585 19.6
David Watson Lib Dems 2,724 7.0
Ben Mascall Conservative 2,276 5.9
Linda Purcell Reform UK 1,790 4.6
Jennifer Blake Other 555 1.4
Mariatu Kargbo Other 355 0.9
Alex Kerr Other 285 0.7
Olusola Oni Other 261 0.7
Stefan Harvey Other 153 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,204
Median age
33
Employment rate
61.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029