Riding profile
Bethnal Green and Stepney
The question
Bethnal Green and Stepney: will Labour lose this seat to Other?
Current forecast
Other
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Labour | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBethnal Green and Stepney | 32.0% | 25.2% | 19.2% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0% +26.9 | 21.8% +3.4 | 10.8% +8.4 | 25.4% −15.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bethnal Green and Stepney, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Rushanara Ali
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushanara Ali Elected | Labour | 15,896 | 34.1 | — |
| Ajmal Masroor | Other | 14,207 | 30.5 | — |
| Phoebe Gill | Green | 6,391 | 13.7 | — |
| Rabina Khan | Lib Dems | 4,777 | 10.2 | — |
| Peter Sceats | Reform UK | 1,964 | 4.2 | — |
| Oscar Reaney | Conservative | 1,920 | 4.1 | — |
| Vanessa Hudson | Other | 348 | 0.8 | — |
| Sham Uddin | Other | 325 | 0.7 | — |
| Md Somon Ahmed | Other | 315 | 0.7 | — |
| Reggie Adams | Other | 271 | 0.6 | — |
| Jon Mabbutt | Other | 233 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029