Riding profile

Bethnal Green and Stepney

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Bethnal Green and Stepney: will Labour lose this seat to Other?

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 32.0%
  • Labour 25.2%
  • Green 19.2%
  • Reform UK 10.1%
  • Lib Dems 8.4%
  • Conservative 4.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Green Reform UK
HereBethnal Green and Stepney 32.0%25.2%19.2%10.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +26.9 21.8% +3.4 10.8% +8.4 25.4% −15.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bethnal Green and Stepney, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rushanara Ali

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
0.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rushanara Ali Elected Labour 15,896 34.1
Ajmal Masroor Other 14,207 30.5
Phoebe Gill Green 6,391 13.7
Rabina Khan Lib Dems 4,777 10.2
Peter Sceats Reform UK 1,964 4.2
Oscar Reaney Conservative 1,920 4.1
Vanessa Hudson Other 348 0.8
Sham Uddin Other 325 0.7
Md Somon Ahmed Other 315 0.7
Reggie Adams Other 271 0.6
Jon Mabbutt Other 233 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
132,943
Median age
29
Employment rate
69.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029