Riding profile

Hackney South and Shoreditch

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Hackney South and Shoreditch: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 44.3%
  • Green 30.8%
  • Reform UK 10.6%
  • Conservative 5.4%
  • Lib Dems 4.6%
  • Other 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereHackney South and Shoreditch 44.3%30.8%10.6%5.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +22.5 10.8% +20.0 25.4% −14.8 19.3% −13.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hackney South and Shoreditch, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 44% vote share, against 31% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dame Meg Hillier

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
35.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Meg Hillier Elected Labour 24,724 59.3 —
Laura-Louise Fairley Green 9,987 23.9 —
Joanna Reeves Conservative 2,076 5.0 —
Theo Roos Lib Dems 1,996 4.8 —
Anil Bhatti Reform UK 1,601 3.8 —
Shahed Hussain Other 1,007 2.4 —
Carol Small Other 310 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
114,399
Median age
32
Employment rate
75.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029