Riding profile
East Surrey
The question
East Surrey: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
East Surrey, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Claire Coutinho
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEast Surrey | 28.2% | 27.8% | 18.9% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +9.3 | 25.3% +2.5 | 11.6% +7.3 | 21.7% −9.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Coutinho Elected | Conservative | 17,502 | 35.6 | — |
| Thomas Bowell | Labour | 10,052 | 20.4 | — |
| Claire Malcomson | Lib Dems | 8,833 | 17.9 | — |
| Chris Scott | Reform UK | 8,380 | 17.0 | — |
| Shasha Khan | Green | 2,957 | 6.0 | — |
| Judy Moore | Other | 1,145 | 2.3 | — |
| Martin Hogbin | Other | 327 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029