Riding profile

East Surrey

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

East Surrey: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.5
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.6%
  • Reform UK 25.1%
  • Lib Dems 18.4%
  • Labour 12.7%
  • Green 9.7%
  • Other 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereEast Surrey 29.6%25.1%18.4%12.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +10.3 25.4% −0.2 11.4% +7.0 21.8% −9.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

East Surrey, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Claire Coutinho

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Claire Coutinho Elected Conservative 17,502 35.6 —
Thomas Bowell Labour 10,052 20.4 —
Claire Malcomson Lib Dems 8,833 17.9 —
Chris Scott Reform UK 8,380 17.0 —
Shasha Khan Green 2,957 6.0 —
Judy Moore Other 1,145 2.3 —
Martin Hogbin Other 327 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,251
Median age
43
Employment rate
78.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029