Riding profile

Reigate

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Reigate: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.3%
  • Reform UK 23.1%
  • Labour 20.0%
  • Lib Dems 13.5%
  • Green 10.8%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereReigate 31.3%23.1%20.0%13.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.0 25.4% −2.3 21.8% −1.8 11.4% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Reigate, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rebecca Paul

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rebecca Paul Elected Conservative 18,822 35.4 —
Stuart Brady Labour 15,635 29.4 —
Joseph Fox Reform UK 7,240 13.6 —
Mark Johnston Lib Dems 6,773 12.7 —
Jonathan Essex Green 4,691 8.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,170
Median age
41
Employment rate
71.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029