Riding profile
Reigate
The question
Reigate: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Reigate, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Rebecca Paul
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereReigate | 29.7% | 22.8% | 18.9% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +10.8 | 25.3% −2.5 | 21.7% −2.7 | 11.8% +2.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Paul Elected | Conservative | 18,822 | 35.4 | — |
| Stuart Brady | Labour | 15,635 | 29.4 | — |
| Joseph Fox | Reform UK | 7,240 | 13.6 | — |
| Mark Johnston | Lib Dems | 6,773 | 12.7 | — |
| Jonathan Essex | Green | 4,691 | 8.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029