Riding profile

West Ham and Beckton

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

West Ham and Beckton: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 34.3%
  • Other 18.1%
  • Reform UK 15.6%
  • Green 14.8%
  • Conservative 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Other Reform UK Green
HereWest Ham and Beckton 34.3%18.1%15.6%14.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +12.5 5.0% +13.0 25.4% −9.7 10.8% +4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

West Ham and Beckton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 18% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

James Asser

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
James Asser Elected Labour 16,434 45.2 —
Sophia Naqvi Other 7,180 19.8 —
Rob Callender Green 3,897 10.7 —
Holly Ramsey Conservative 3,781 10.4 —
Georgie David Reform UK 2,800 7.7 —
Emily Bigland Lib Dems 1,606 4.4 —
Kayode Shedowo Other 460 1.3 —
Lois Austin Other 190 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
140,177
Median age
32
Employment rate
71.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029