Riding profile

Orpington

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Orpington: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.7%
  • Reform UK 28.7%
  • Labour 17.7%
  • Lib Dems 11.3%
  • Green 7.3%
  • Other 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereOrpington 32.7%28.7%17.7%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +13.4 25.4% +3.3 21.8% −4.1 11.4% −0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Orpington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Gareth Bacon

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gareth Bacon Elected Conservative 17,504 38.0 —
Ju Owens Labour 12,386 26.9 —
Mark James Reform UK 8,896 19.3 —
Graeme Casey Lib Dems 4,728 10.3 —
Seamus McCauley Green 2,319 5.0 —
John Bright Other 240 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,217
Median age
42
Employment rate
88.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029