Riding profile
Orpington
The question
Orpington: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Orpington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Gareth Bacon
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.1
- P(close race)
- 30%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOrpington | 32.3% | 27.2% | 17.8% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +13.4 | 25.3% +1.9 | 21.7% −3.9 | 11.6% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Bacon Elected | Conservative | 17,504 | 38.0 | — |
| Ju Owens | Labour | 12,386 | 26.9 | — |
| Mark James | Reform UK | 8,896 | 19.3 | — |
| Graeme Casey | Lib Dems | 4,728 | 10.3 | — |
| Seamus McCauley | Green | 2,319 | 5.0 | — |
| John Bright | Other | 240 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029