Riding profile

Sevenoaks

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Sevenoaks: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
88%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.1%
  • Reform UK 27.4%
  • Lib Dems 22.4%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Labour 7.7%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Green
HereSevenoaks 32.1%27.4%22.4%7.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.8 25.4% +2.0 11.4% +11.0 10.8% −3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Sevenoaks, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Laura Trott

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Laura Trott Elected Conservative 18,328 36.7 —
Richard Streatfeild Lib Dems 12,888 25.8 —
James Milmine Reform UK 9,341 18.7 —
Denise Scott-McDonald Labour 6,802 13.6 —
Laura Manston Green 2,033 4.1 —
Elwyn Jones Other 298 0.6 —
Adam Hibbert Other 209 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,985
Median age
44
Employment rate
81.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029