Riding profile
Sevenoaks
The question
Sevenoaks: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Sevenoaks, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Laura Trott
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSevenoaks | 30.5% | 27.9% | 21.2% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +11.6 | 25.3% +2.6 | 11.6% +9.5 | 21.7% −12.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Trott Elected | Conservative | 18,328 | 36.7 | — |
| Richard Streatfeild | Lib Dems | 12,888 | 25.8 | — |
| James Milmine | Reform UK | 9,341 | 18.7 | — |
| Denise Scott-McDonald | Labour | 6,802 | 13.6 | — |
| Laura Manston | Green | 2,033 | 4.1 | — |
| Elwyn Jones | Other | 298 | 0.6 | — |
| Adam Hibbert | Other | 209 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029