Riding profile

Dartford

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Dartford: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.1%
  • Conservative 29.0%
  • Labour 22.5%
  • Green 9.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.1%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereDartford 30.1%29.0%22.5%9.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.7 19.3% +9.7 21.8% +0.7 10.8% −0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Dartford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jim Dickson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jim Dickson Elected Labour 15,392 34.6 —
Gareth Johnson Conservative 14,200 31.9 —
Lee Stranders Reform UK 9,523 21.4 —
Laura Edie Green 3,189 7.2 —
Kyle Marsh Lib Dems 2,184 4.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,952
Median age
36
Employment rate
81.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029