Riding profile
Dartford
The question
Dartford: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Dartford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jim Dickson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 95%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDartford | 31.4% | 26.6% | 22.1% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.0 | 18.9% +7.8 | 21.7% +0.4 | 11.8% +0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Dickson Elected | Labour | 15,392 | 34.6 | — |
| Gareth Johnson | Conservative | 14,200 | 31.9 | — |
| Lee Stranders | Reform UK | 9,523 | 21.4 | — |
| Laura Edie | Green | 3,189 | 7.2 | — |
| Kyle Marsh | Lib Dems | 2,184 | 4.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029