Riding profile
Tonbridge
The question
Tonbridge: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Tonbridge, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 34% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tom Tugendhat
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Green | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTonbridge | 34.3% | 22.9% | 20.0% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +15.4 | 25.3% −2.4 | 11.8% +8.2 | 21.7% −10.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Tugendhat Elected | Conservative | 20,517 | 40.8 | — |
| Lewis Bailey | Labour | 9,351 | 18.6 | — |
| Anna Cope | Green | 7,596 | 15.1 | — |
| Teresa Hansford | Reform UK | 7,548 | 15.0 | — |
| John Woollcombe | Lib Dems | 4,234 | 8.4 | — |
| Tim Shaw | Other | 926 | 1.8 | — |
| Ian Grattidge | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029