Riding profile

Tonbridge

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Tonbridge: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 35.8%
  • Reform UK 24.4%
  • Green 15.3%
  • Labour 10.9%
  • Lib Dems 9.0%
  • Other 4.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Green Labour
HereTonbridge 35.8%24.4%15.3%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +16.5 25.4% −0.9 10.8% +4.5 21.8% −10.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Tonbridge, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 36% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tom Tugendhat

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
22.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tom Tugendhat Elected Conservative 20,517 40.8 —
Lewis Bailey Labour 9,351 18.6 —
Anna Cope Green 7,596 15.1 —
Teresa Hansford Reform UK 7,548 15.0 —
John Woollcombe Lib Dems 4,234 8.4 —
Tim Shaw Other 926 1.8 —
Ian Grattidge Other 156 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,582
Median age
44
Employment rate
81.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029