Riding profile
Gravesham
The question
Gravesham: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Gravesham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dr Lauren Sullivan
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGravesham | 31.5% | 27.3% | 24.2% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.1 | 18.9% +8.4 | 21.7% +2.6 | 11.8% −1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Sullivan Elected | Labour | 16,623 | 38.5 | — |
| Adam Holloway | Conservative | 13,911 | 32.2 | — |
| Matthew Fraser Moat | Reform UK | 8,910 | 20.6 | — |
| Rebecca Hopkins | Green | 2,254 | 5.2 | — |
| Ukonu Obasi | Lib Dems | 1,534 | 3.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029