Riding profile

Gravesham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Gravesham: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.9%
  • Conservative 28.4%
  • Labour 23.5%
  • Green 8.7%
  • Lib Dems 5.9%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereGravesham 31.9%28.4%23.5%8.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.5 19.3% +9.0 21.8% +1.7 10.8% −2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Gravesham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dr Lauren Sullivan

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
6.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lauren Sullivan Elected Labour 16,623 38.5 —
Adam Holloway Conservative 13,911 32.2 —
Matthew Fraser Moat Reform UK 8,910 20.6 —
Rebecca Hopkins Green 2,254 5.2 —
Ukonu Obasi Lib Dems 1,534 3.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,970
Median age
39
Employment rate
65.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029