Gravesham
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravesham | 29.5% | 29.0% | 28.0% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+3.0 | 22.3%+6.7 | 20.0%+7.9 | 9.7%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,970 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 65.5% |
Current member
Dr Lauren Sullivan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 6.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Sullivan Elected | Labour | 16,623 | 38.5 |
| Adam Holloway | Conservative | 13,911 | 32.2 |
| Matthew Fraser Moat | Reform UK | 8,910 | 20.6 |
| Rebecca Hopkins | Green | 2,254 | 5.2 |
| Ukonu Obasi | Lib Dems | 1,534 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chatham and Aylesford Reform UK, competitive
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
- Thurrock Labour, toss-up
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
- Dartford Reform UK, toss-up
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated