Riding profile

Maidstone and Malling

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Maidstone and Malling: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Maidstone and Malling, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Helen Grant

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.0%
  • Conservative 25.2%
  • Labour 17.0%
  • Lib Dems 14.1%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Other 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereMaidstone and Malling 29.0%25.2%17.0%14.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +3.7 18.9% +6.3 21.7% −4.6 11.6% +2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Helen Grant Elected Conservative 14,146 30.5
Maureen Cleator Labour 12,472 26.9
Paul Thomas Reform UK 9,316 20.1
David Naghi Lib Dems 6,375 13.7
Stuart Jeffery Green 3,727 8.0
Yolande Kenward Other 197 0.4
Gary Butler Other 156 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,004
Median age
39
Employment rate
80.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029