Riding profile
Maidstone and Malling
The question
Maidstone and Malling: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMaidstone and Malling | 28.6% | 26.6% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +3.2 | 19.3% +7.2 | 21.8% −4.9 | 11.4% +3.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Maidstone and Malling, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Helen Grant
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helen Grant Elected | Conservative | 14,146 | 30.5 | — |
| Maureen Cleator | Labour | 12,472 | 26.9 | — |
| Paul Thomas | Reform UK | 9,316 | 20.1 | — |
| David Naghi | Lib Dems | 6,375 | 13.7 | — |
| Stuart Jeffery | Green | 3,727 | 8.0 | — |
| Yolande Kenward | Other | 197 | 0.4 | — |
| Gary Butler | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029