Riding profile
Maidstone and Malling
The question
Maidstone and Malling: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Maidstone and Malling, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Helen Grant
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMaidstone and Malling | 29.0% | 25.2% | 17.0% | 14.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.7 | 18.9% +6.3 | 21.7% −4.6 | 11.6% +2.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helen Grant Elected | Conservative | 14,146 | 30.5 | — |
| Maureen Cleator | Labour | 12,472 | 26.9 | — |
| Paul Thomas | Reform UK | 9,316 | 20.1 | — |
| David Naghi | Lib Dems | 6,375 | 13.7 | — |
| Stuart Jeffery | Green | 3,727 | 8.0 | — |
| Yolande Kenward | Other | 197 | 0.4 | — |
| Gary Butler | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029