Riding profile
Rochester and Strood
The question
Rochester and Strood: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRochester and Strood | 33.0% | 25.5% | 21.0% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.7 | 19.3% +6.1 | 21.8% −0.8 | 10.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Rochester and Strood, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lauren Edwards
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Edwards Elected | Labour | 15,403 | 36.2 | — |
| Kelly Tolhurst | Conservative | 12,473 | 29.3 | — |
| Daniel Dabin | Reform UK | 9,966 | 23.4 | — |
| Cat Jamieson | Green | 2,427 | 5.7 | — |
| Graham Colley | Lib Dems | 1,894 | 4.5 | — |
| John Innes | Other | 245 | 0.6 | — |
| Peter Burch | Other | 190 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029