Gillingham and Rainham
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham and Rainham | 29.4% | 29.2% | 24.6% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 22.3%+7.1 | 26.5%+2.8 | 20.0%+4.5 | 9.7%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,259 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 80.2% |
Current member
Naushabah Khan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naushabah Khan Elected | Labour | 15,562 | 37.8 |
| Rehman Chishti | Conservative | 11,590 | 28.2 |
| Rizvi Rawoof | Reform UK | 8,792 | 21.4 |
| Kate Belmonte | Green | 2,318 | 5.6 |
| Stuart Bourne | Lib Dems | 2,248 | 5.5 |
| Peter Cook | Other | 344 | 0.8 |
| Roger Peacock | Other | 175 | 0.4 |
| Peter Wheeler | Other | 111 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rochester and Strood Reform UK, toss-up
- Southend West and Leigh Labour, toss-up
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Chatham and Aylesford Reform UK, competitive
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated