Riding profile
Gillingham and Rainham
The question
Gillingham and Rainham: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGillingham and Rainham | 32.4% | 24.6% | 22.1% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.1 | 19.3% +5.3 | 21.8% +0.2 | 10.8% −0.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Gillingham and Rainham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Naushabah Khan
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naushabah Khan Elected | Labour | 15,562 | 37.8 | — |
| Rehman Chishti | Conservative | 11,590 | 28.2 | — |
| Rizvi Rawoof | Reform UK | 8,792 | 21.4 | — |
| Kate Belmonte | Green | 2,318 | 5.6 | — |
| Stuart Bourne | Lib Dems | 2,248 | 5.5 | — |
| Peter Cook | Other | 344 | 0.8 | — |
| Roger Peacock | Other | 175 | 0.4 | — |
| Peter Wheeler | Other | 111 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029