Riding profile
South Basildon and East Thurrock
The question
South Basildon and East Thurrock: will Independent lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Basildon and East Thurrock | 39.7% | 21.1% | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +14.3 | 19.3% +1.8 | 21.8% −3.8 | 10.8% −2.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South Basildon and East Thurrock, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Reform UK in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 40% vote share, against 21% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
James McMurdock
Sits with Independent
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McMurdock Elected | Reform UK | 12,178 | 30.8 | — |
| Jack Ferguson | Labour | 12,080 | 30.5 | — |
| Stephen Metcalfe | Conservative | 10,159 | 25.7 | — |
| Neil Speight | Other | 1,928 | 4.9 | — |
| Elizabeth Grant | Green | 1,718 | 4.3 | — |
| Dave Thomas | Lib Dems | 1,071 | 2.7 | — |
| Steven Burnett | Other | 275 | 0.7 | — |
| Simon Breedon | Other | 140 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029