Riding profile
Castle Point
The question
Castle Point: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Castle Point, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 41% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Rebecca Harris
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCastle Point | 41.2% | 30.1% | 11.3% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +15.8 | 18.9% +11.2 | 21.7% −10.3 | 11.8% −2.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Harris Elected | Conservative | 15,485 | 38.1 | — |
| Keiron McGill | Reform UK | 12,234 | 30.1 | — |
| Mark Maguire | Labour | 9,455 | 23.3 | — |
| Bob Chapman | Green | 2,118 | 5.2 | — |
| James Willis | Lib Dems | 1,341 | 3.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029