Riding profile

Castle Point

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Castle Point: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 41.7%
  • Conservative 30.1%
  • Labour 12.8%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.9%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereCastle Point 41.7%30.1%12.8%8.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +16.3 19.3% +10.8 21.8% −9.0 10.8% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Castle Point, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rebecca Harris

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
8.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rebecca Harris Elected Conservative 15,485 38.1 —
Keiron McGill Reform UK 12,234 30.1 —
Mark Maguire Labour 9,455 23.3 —
Bob Chapman Green 2,118 5.2 —
James Willis Lib Dems 1,341 3.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
91,681
Median age
46
Employment rate
76.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029