Castle Point
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 73%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Point | 37.7% | 33.9% | 16.1% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 22.3%+15.4 | 20.0%+13.8 | 26.5%−10.4 | 9.7%−2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,681 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 76.7% |
Current member
Rebecca Harris · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 8.0 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Harris Elected | Conservative | 15,485 | 38.1 |
| Keiron McGill | Reform UK | 12,234 | 30.1 |
| Mark Maguire | Labour | 9,455 | 23.3 |
| Bob Chapman | Green | 2,118 | 5.2 |
| James Willis | Lib Dems | 1,341 | 3.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
- Maldon Conservative, toss-up
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
- Basildon and Billericay Reform UK, competitive
- Southend West and Leigh Labour, toss-up
- Rochester and Strood Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated