Riding profile

Maldon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Maldon: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.8%
  • Conservative 31.0%
  • Lib Dems 12.3%
  • Labour 10.6%
  • Green 8.0%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems Labour
HereMaldon 36.8%31.0%12.3%10.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.4 19.3% +11.6 11.4% +0.9 21.8% −11.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Maldon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir John Whittingdale

Sits with Conservative

Since
1992-04-09
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Whittingdale Elected Conservative 19,374 38.9 —
Pamela Walford Reform UK 12,468 25.0 —
Onike Gollo Labour 9,817 19.7 —
Simon Burwood Lib Dems 5,882 11.8 —
Isobel Doubleday Green 2,300 4.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,186
Median age
47
Employment rate
82.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029