Riding profile
Basildon and Billericay
The question
Basildon and Billericay: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Basildon and Billericay, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Richard Holden
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBasildon and Billericay | 36.9% | 25.6% | 18.1% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.5 | 18.9% +6.7 | 21.7% −3.6 | 11.8% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Holden Elected | Conservative | 12,905 | 30.6 | — |
| Alex Harrison | Labour | 12,885 | 30.6 | — |
| Stephen Conlay | Reform UK | 11,354 | 26.9 | — |
| Edward Sainsbury | Lib Dems | 2,292 | 5.4 | — |
| Stewart Goshawk | Green | 2,123 | 5.0 | — |
| Christopher Bateman | Other | 373 | 0.9 | — |
| Dave Murray | Other | 192 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029