Riding profile
Chatham and Aylesford
The question
Chatham and Aylesford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChatham and Aylesford | 34.1% | 25.6% | 18.9% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +8.7 | 19.3% +6.3 | 21.8% −2.9 | 10.8% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Chatham and Aylesford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tristan Osborne
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Osborne Elected | Labour | 13,689 | 33.5 | — |
| Nathan Gamester | Conservative | 11,691 | 28.6 | — |
| Thomas Mallon | Reform UK | 9,989 | 24.5 | — |
| Kim Winterbottom | Green | 2,504 | 6.1 | — |
| Nicholas Chan | Lib Dems | 2,175 | 5.3 | — |
| Matt Valentine | Other | 340 | 0.8 | — |
| Adedotun Ogundemuren | Other | 316 | 0.8 | — |
| Steve Tanner | Other | 141 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029