Riding profile
Chatham and Aylesford
The question
Chatham and Aylesford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Chatham and Aylesford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tristan Osborne
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChatham and Aylesford | 35.0% | 23.9% | 20.2% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.7 | 18.9% +5.0 | 21.7% −1.4 | 11.8% −1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Osborne Elected | Labour | 13,689 | 33.5 | — |
| Nathan Gamester | Conservative | 11,691 | 28.6 | — |
| Thomas Mallon | Reform UK | 9,989 | 24.5 | — |
| Kim Winterbottom | Green | 2,504 | 6.1 | — |
| Nicholas Chan | Lib Dems | 2,175 | 5.3 | — |
| Matt Valentine | Other | 340 | 0.8 | — |
| Adedotun Ogundemuren | Other | 316 | 0.8 | — |
| Steve Tanner | Other | 141 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029