Riding profile

Tunbridge Wells

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Tunbridge Wells: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Tunbridge Wells, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mike Martin

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 36.1%
  • Reform UK 22.4%
  • Conservative 21.8%
  • Green 9.0%
  • Labour 8.4%
  • Other 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereTunbridge Wells 36.1%22.4%21.8%9.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +24.4 25.3% −2.9 18.9% +2.9 11.8% −2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
16.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mike Martin Elected Lib Dems 23,661 43.6
Neil Mahapatra Conservative 14,974 27.6
John Gager Reform UK 6,484 11.9
Hugo Pound Labour 6,178 11.4
John Hurst Green 2,344 4.3
Hassan Kassem Other 609 1.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,058
Median age
43
Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029