Riding profile
Tunbridge Wells
The question
Tunbridge Wells: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Tunbridge Wells, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mike Martin
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTunbridge Wells | 36.1% | 22.4% | 21.8% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +24.4 | 25.3% −2.9 | 18.9% +2.9 | 11.8% −2.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Martin Elected | Lib Dems | 23,661 | 43.6 | — |
| Neil Mahapatra | Conservative | 14,974 | 27.6 | — |
| John Gager | Reform UK | 6,484 | 11.9 | — |
| Hugo Pound | Labour | 6,178 | 11.4 | — |
| John Hurst | Green | 2,344 | 4.3 | — |
| Hassan Kassem | Other | 609 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029