Riding profile
Sussex Weald
The question
Sussex Weald: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSussex Weald | 29.2% | 27.6% | 18.4% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +9.9 | 25.4% +2.2 | 11.4% +7.0 | 10.8% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Sussex Weald, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Ms Nusrat Ghani
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nus Ghani Elected | Conservative | 16,758 | 34.1 | — |
| Danielle Newson | Lib Dems | 9,916 | 20.2 | — |
| David Morgan | Reform UK | 8,920 | 18.1 | — |
| Dipesh Patel | Labour | 8,239 | 16.8 | — |
| Austin Henderson | Green | 3,762 | 7.7 | — |
| Shaun Bowler | Other | 953 | 1.9 | — |
| Stephen Gander | Other | 319 | 0.7 | — |
| Dominie Stemp | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
| Chris Magness | Other | 152 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029