Riding profile
Eastbourne
The question
Eastbourne: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEastbourne | 44.6% | 23.3% | 20.3% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +33.2 | 25.4% −2.0 | 19.3% +1.0 | 10.8% −4.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Eastbourne, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 45% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Josh Babarinde
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Babarinde Elected | Lib Dems | 23,742 | 52.1 | — |
| Caroline Ansell | Conservative | 11,538 | 25.3 | — |
| Mark Ashdown | Reform UK | 6,061 | 13.3 | — |
| Paul Richards | Labour | 2,689 | 5.9 | — |
| Mike Munson | Green | 1,421 | 3.1 | — |
| Ian Garbutt | Other | 154 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029