Riding profile

Eastbourne

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Eastbourne: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Eastbourne, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 41% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Josh Babarinde

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 41.2%
  • Reform UK 23.0%
  • Conservative 20.7%
  • Labour 6.8%
  • Green 6.6%
  • Other 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereEastbourne 41.2%23.0%20.7%6.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +29.6 25.3% −2.4 18.9% +1.8 21.7% −14.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
26.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Josh Babarinde Elected Lib Dems 23,742 52.1
Caroline Ansell Conservative 11,538 25.3
Mark Ashdown Reform UK 6,061 13.3
Paul Richards Labour 2,689 5.9
Mike Munson Green 1,421 3.1
Ian Garbutt Other 154 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,247
Median age
45
Employment rate
71.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029