Riding profile
Lewes
The question
Lewes: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLewes | 43.2% | 22.8% | 21.6% | 6.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +31.9 | 25.4% −2.6 | 19.3% +2.3 | 10.8% −4.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Lewes, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 43% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
James MacCleary
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MacCleary Elected | Lib Dems | 26,895 | 50.6 | — |
| Maria Caulfield | Conservative | 14,271 | 26.8 | — |
| Bernard Brown | Reform UK | 6,335 | 11.9 | — |
| Danny Sweeney | Labour | 3,574 | 6.7 | — |
| Paul Keene | Green | 1,869 | 3.5 | — |
| Rowena Easton | Other | 229 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029