Riding profile
Brighton Pavilion
The question
Brighton Pavilion: a safe seat for the Green Party?
Editorial read
Brighton Pavilion, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 17% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Siân Berry
Sits with Green
Current forecast
Green
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 45.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Green | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBrighton Pavilion | 61.9% | 17.2% | 11.1% | 4.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.8% +50.0 | 21.7% −4.5 | 25.3% −14.3 | 18.9% −14.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siân Berry Elected | Green | 28,809 | 55.0 | — |
| Tom Gray | Labour | 14,519 | 27.7 | — |
| Sarah Webster | Conservative | 3,975 | 7.6 | — |
| Mark Mulvihill | Reform UK | 2,836 | 5.4 | — |
| Ashley Ridley | Lib Dems | 1,604 | 3.1 | — |
| Citizen Skwith | Other | 257 | 0.5 | — |
| Carl Buckfield | Other | 184 | 0.3 | — |
| Steve AI | Other | 179 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029