Riding profile

Brighton Pavilion

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Brighton Pavilion: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Editorial read

Brighton Pavilion, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 17% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Siân Berry

Sits with Green

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Green

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 61.9%
  • Labour 17.2%
  • Reform UK 11.1%
  • Conservative 4.1%
  • Lib Dems 3.5%
  • Other 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Labour Reform UK Conservative
HereBrighton Pavilion 61.9%17.2%11.1%4.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.8% +50.0 21.7% −4.5 25.3% −14.3 18.9% −14.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Green
Margin
27.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Siân Berry Elected Green 28,809 55.0
Tom Gray Labour 14,519 27.7
Sarah Webster Conservative 3,975 7.6
Mark Mulvihill Reform UK 2,836 5.4
Ashley Ridley Lib Dems 1,604 3.1
Citizen Skwith Other 257 0.5
Carl Buckfield Other 184 0.3
Steve AI Other 179 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,257
Median age
34
Employment rate
80.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029