Riding profile

Brighton Pavilion

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Brighton Pavilion: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Current forecast

Green

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 56.0%
  • Labour 18.9%
  • Reform UK 12.4%
  • Conservative 5.4%
  • Lib Dems 4.5%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Labour Reform UK Conservative
HereBrighton Pavilion 56.0%18.9%12.4%5.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 10.8% +45.2 21.8% −2.9 25.4% −12.9 19.3% −13.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Brighton Pavilion, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 19% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Siân Berry

Sits with Green

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Green
Margin
27.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Siân Berry Elected Green 28,809 55.0 —
Tom Gray Labour 14,519 27.7 —
Sarah Webster Conservative 3,975 7.6 —
Mark Mulvihill Reform UK 2,836 5.4 —
Ashley Ridley Lib Dems 1,604 3.1 —
Citizen Skwith Other 257 0.5 —
Carl Buckfield Other 184 0.3 —
Steve AI Other 179 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,257
Median age
34
Employment rate
80.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029