Riding profile

East Worthing and Shoreham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

East Worthing and Shoreham: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 27.6%
  • Reform UK 27.4%
  • Conservative 21.7%
  • Green 11.7%
  • Lib Dems 8.4%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereEast Worthing and Shoreham 27.6%27.4%21.7%11.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +5.8 25.4% +2.0 19.3% +2.4 10.8% +0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

East Worthing and Shoreham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tom Rutland

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tom Rutland Elected Labour 22,120 45.1 —
Leila Williams Conservative 12,601 25.7 —
Lionel Harman Reform UK 7,169 14.6 —
Debbie Woudman Green 3,246 6.6 —
David Batchelor Lib Dems 3,180 6.5 —
Frank Ward Other 320 0.7 —
John Greenshields Other 273 0.6 —
Ivana Forman Other 169 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,910
Median age
45
Employment rate
82.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029