Riding profile

East Worthing and Shoreham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

East Worthing and Shoreham: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

East Worthing and Shoreham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tom Rutland

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.4%
  • Reform UK 26.2%
  • Conservative 21.3%
  • Green 13.2%
  • Lib Dems 8.1%
  • Other 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereEast Worthing and Shoreham 28.4%26.2%21.3%13.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +6.7 25.3% +0.9 18.9% +2.4 11.8% +1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-18.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tom Rutland Elected Labour 22,120 45.1
Leila Williams Conservative 12,601 25.7
Lionel Harman Reform UK 7,169 14.6
Debbie Woudman Green 3,246 6.6
David Batchelor Lib Dems 3,180 6.5
Frank Ward Other 320 0.7
John Greenshields Other 273 0.6
Ivana Forman Other 169 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,910
Median age
45
Employment rate
82.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029