Riding profile
Horsham
The question
Horsham: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Horsham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
John Milne
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHorsham | 31.7% | 27.9% | 21.9% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +20.0 | 18.9% +9.0 | 25.3% −3.5 | 21.7% −13.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Milne Elected | Lib Dems | 21,632 | 39.0 | — |
| Jeremy Quin | Conservative | 19,115 | 34.4 | — |
| Hugo Miller | Reform UK | 6,116 | 11.0 | — |
| James Field | Labour | 5,979 | 10.8 | — |
| Catherine Ross | Green | 2,137 | 3.9 | — |
| Jim Duggan | Other | 276 | 0.5 | — |
| Paul Abbott | Other | 244 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029