Riding profile
Horsham
The question
Horsham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHorsham | 35.6% | 27.1% | 21.7% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +24.2 | 19.3% +7.8 | 25.4% −3.6 | 10.8% −3.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Horsham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Milne
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Milne Elected | Lib Dems | 21,632 | 39.0 | — |
| Jeremy Quin | Conservative | 19,115 | 34.4 | — |
| Hugo Miller | Reform UK | 6,116 | 11.0 | — |
| James Field | Labour | 5,979 | 10.8 | — |
| Catherine Ross | Green | 2,137 | 3.9 | — |
| Jim Duggan | Other | 276 | 0.5 | — |
| Paul Abbott | Other | 244 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029