Riding profile

Hove and Portslade

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Hove and Portslade: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Hove and Portslade, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Peter Kyle

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.5%
  • Green 27.4%
  • Reform UK 17.2%
  • Conservative 8.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.5%
  • Other 5.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereHove and Portslade 33.5%27.4%17.2%8.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +11.8 11.8% +15.6 25.3% −8.1 18.9% −10.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
38.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-33.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Kyle Elected Labour 27,209 52.4
Sophie Broadbent Green 7,418 14.3
Carline Deal Conservative 6,630 12.8
Martin Hess Reform UK 4,558 8.8
Tanushka Marah Other 3,048 5.9
Michael Wang Lib Dems 3,046 5.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,839
Median age
41
Employment rate
75.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029