Riding profile

Hove and Portslade

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Hove and Portslade: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.2%
  • Green 24.4%
  • Reform UK 15.6%
  • Conservative 10.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 6.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereHove and Portslade 36.2%24.4%15.6%10.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +14.4 10.8% +13.6 25.4% −9.8 19.3% −8.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hove and Portslade, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 24% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Peter Kyle

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
38.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Kyle Elected Labour 27,209 52.4 —
Sophie Broadbent Green 7,418 14.3 —
Carline Deal Conservative 6,630 12.8 —
Martin Hess Reform UK 4,558 8.8 —
Tanushka Marah Other 3,048 5.9 —
Michael Wang Lib Dems 3,046 5.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,839
Median age
41
Employment rate
75.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029