Riding profile

East Grinstead and Uckfield

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

East Grinstead and Uckfield: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Editorial read

East Grinstead and Uckfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 19% for the Lib Dems, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mims Davies

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.1%
  • Lib Dems 18.8%
  • Green 15.3%
  • Reform UK 14.6%
  • Labour 12.5%
  • Other 7.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Lib Dems Green Reform UK
HereEast Grinstead and Uckfield 31.1%18.8%15.3%14.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +12.3 11.6% +7.2 11.8% +3.5 25.3% −10.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
16.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mims Davies Elected Conservative 19,319 38.3
Benedict Dempsey Lib Dems 10,839 21.5
Ben Cox Labour 10,440 20.7
Christina Coleman Green 5,277 10.5
Ian Gibson Other 2,482 4.9
William Highton Other 2,036 4.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,476
Median age
46
Employment rate
83.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029