Riding profile

East Grinstead and Uckfield

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

East Grinstead and Uckfield: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.4%
  • Lib Dems 18.7%
  • Reform UK 14.8%
  • Labour 12.5%
  • Green 12.5%
  • Other 8.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Lib Dems Reform UK Labour
HereEast Grinstead and Uckfield 32.4%18.7%14.8%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +13.1 11.4% +7.3 25.4% −10.5 21.8% −9.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

East Grinstead and Uckfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 19% for the Lib Dems, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mims Davies

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
16.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mims Davies Elected Conservative 19,319 38.3 —
Benedict Dempsey Lib Dems 10,839 21.5 —
Ben Cox Labour 10,440 20.7 —
Christina Coleman Green 5,277 10.5 —
Ian Gibson Other 2,482 4.9 —
William Highton Other 2,036 4.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,476
Median age
46
Employment rate
83.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029