Riding profile

Mid Sussex

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Mid Sussex: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 37.0%
  • Conservative 21.5%
  • Reform UK 21.2%
  • Labour 10.9%
  • Green 7.1%
  • Other 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereMid Sussex 37.0%21.5%21.2%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +25.6 19.3% +2.2 25.4% −4.2 21.8% −10.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Sussex, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 37% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alison Bennett

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
12.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alison Bennett Elected Lib Dems 21,136 39.6 —
Kristy Adams Conservative 14,474 27.1 —
David Rowntree Labour 9,397 17.6 —
Gary Johnson Reform UK 5,921 11.1 —
Deanna Nicholson Green 2,048 3.8 —
Baron Von Thunderclap Other 352 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,553
Median age
43
Employment rate
79.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029