Riding profile

Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 29.2%
  • Green 25.7%
  • Conservative 15.5%
  • Reform UK 13.2%
  • Lib Dems 9.5%
  • Other 6.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Conservative Reform UK
HereBrighton Kemptown and Peacehaven 29.2%25.7%15.5%13.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +7.4 10.8% +14.9 19.3% −3.8 25.4% −12.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chris Ward

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Ward Elected Labour 17,893 44.0 —
Khobi Vallis Conservative 8,230 20.2 —
Elaine Hills Green 7,997 19.7 —
Stewart Stone Lib Dems 3,949 9.7 —
Emma Wall Other 1,833 4.5 —
Valerie Gray Other 784 1.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,034
Median age
40
Employment rate
69.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029