Riding profile
Crawley
The question
Crawley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Crawley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Peter Lamb
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCrawley | 29.1% | 23.9% | 22.4% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.8 | 21.7% +2.2 | 18.9% +3.5 | 11.8% +0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lamb Elected | Labour | 17,453 | 38.2 | — |
| Zack Ali | Conservative | 12,218 | 26.8 | — |
| Tim Charters | Reform UK | 8,447 | 18.5 | — |
| Iain Dickson | Green | 2,621 | 5.7 | — |
| Linda Bamieh | Other | 2,407 | 5.3 | — |
| Lee Gibbs | Lib Dems | 2,205 | 4.8 | — |
| Robin Burnham | Other | 153 | 0.3 | — |
| Dan Weir | Other | 138 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029