Riding profile

Crawley

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Crawley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.5%
  • Labour 24.1%
  • Conservative 23.2%
  • Green 10.5%
  • Other 6.9%
  • Lib Dems 6.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereCrawley 28.5%24.1%23.2%10.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.2 21.8% +2.3 19.3% +3.9 10.8% −0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Crawley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Peter Lamb

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Lamb Elected Labour 17,453 38.2 —
Zack Ali Conservative 12,218 26.8 —
Tim Charters Reform UK 8,447 18.5 —
Iain Dickson Green 2,621 5.7 —
Linda Bamieh Other 2,407 5.3 —
Lee Gibbs Lib Dems 2,205 4.8 —
Robin Burnham Other 153 0.3 —
Dan Weir Other 138 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
119,509
Median age
37
Employment rate
78.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029