Riding profile

Dorking and Horley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Dorking and Horley: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 39.0%
  • Conservative 25.3%
  • Reform UK 22.4%
  • Green 7.6%
  • Labour 4.4%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereDorking and Horley 39.0%25.3%22.4%7.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +27.7 19.3% +6.0 25.4% −2.9 10.8% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Dorking and Horley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chris Coghlan

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
10.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Coghlan Elected Lib Dems 20,921 41.9 —
Marisa Heath Conservative 15,530 31.1 —
Craig Young Reform UK 6,898 13.8 —
Nadia Burrell Labour 4,053 8.1 —
Lisa Scott Green 2,563 5.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,882
Median age
45
Employment rate
75.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029