Riding profile
Dorking and Horley
The question
Dorking and Horley: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Dorking and Horley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Coghlan
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDorking and Horley | 34.3% | 25.5% | 22.9% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +22.6 | 18.9% +6.6 | 25.3% −2.4 | 11.8% −2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Coghlan Elected | Lib Dems | 20,921 | 41.9 | — |
| Marisa Heath | Conservative | 15,530 | 31.1 | — |
| Craig Young | Reform UK | 6,898 | 13.8 | — |
| Nadia Burrell | Labour | 4,053 | 8.1 | — |
| Lisa Scott | Green | 2,563 | 5.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029