Riding profile
Esher and Walton
The question
Esher and Walton: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Esher and Walton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 44% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Monica Harding
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEsher and Walton | 43.7% | 23.7% | 18.4% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +32.1 | 18.9% +4.8 | 25.3% −6.9 | 11.8% −5.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monica Harding Elected | Lib Dems | 28,315 | 52.5 | — |
| John Cope | Conservative | 16,312 | 30.3 | — |
| Alastair Gray | Reform UK | 4,777 | 8.9 | — |
| Yoel Gordon | Labour | 2,846 | 5.3 | — |
| Maciej Pawlik | Green | 1,396 | 2.6 | — |
| Richard Bateson | Other | 234 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029