Riding profile

Runnymede and Weybridge

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Runnymede and Weybridge: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.8%
  • Reform UK 22.5%
  • Lib Dems 21.5%
  • Labour 14.0%
  • Green 7.1%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereRunnymede and Weybridge 31.8%22.5%21.5%14.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.5 25.4% −2.8 11.4% +10.2 21.8% −7.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Runnymede and Weybridge, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Ben Spencer

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Spencer Elected Conservative 18,442 38.2
Ellen Nicholson Lib Dems 10,815 22.4
Robert King Labour 9,963 20.6
Stewart Mackay Reform UK 6,419 13.3
Steven Ringham Green 1,954 4.0
Michael Cressey Other 518 1.1
Nicholas Wood Other 142 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,192
Median age
42
Employment rate
83.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029