Riding profile

Spelthorne

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Spelthorne: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
51%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 26.4%
  • Reform UK 26.4%
  • Lib Dems 18.9%
  • Labour 18.6%
  • Green 7.4%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereSpelthorne 26.4%26.4%18.9%18.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +7.1 25.4% +1.0 11.4% +7.6 21.8% −3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Spelthorne, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 26% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lincoln Jopp

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lincoln Jopp Elected Conservative 14,038 30.4 —
Claire Tighe Labour 12,448 27.0 —
Harry Boparai Lib Dems 8,710 18.9 —
Rory O'Brien Reform UK 8,284 17.9 —
Manu Singh Green 2,413 5.2 —
Alistair Miller Other 273 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,551
Median age
41
Employment rate
81.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029