Riding profile
Spelthorne
The question
Spelthorne: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Spelthorne, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Lincoln Jopp
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSpelthorne | 27.0% | 25.4% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +1.7 | 18.9% +6.5 | 11.6% +6.4 | 21.7% −4.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Jopp Elected | Conservative | 14,038 | 30.4 | — |
| Claire Tighe | Labour | 12,448 | 27.0 | — |
| Harry Boparai | Lib Dems | 8,710 | 18.9 | — |
| Rory O'Brien | Reform UK | 8,284 | 17.9 | — |
| Manu Singh | Green | 2,413 | 5.2 | — |
| Alistair Miller | Other | 273 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029