Riding profile

Windsor

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Windsor: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Editorial read

Windsor, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jack Rankin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.2%
  • Reform UK 23.1%
  • Lib Dems 19.4%
  • Labour 14.1%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Other 4.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereWindsor 29.2%23.1%19.4%14.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +10.3 25.3% −2.3 11.6% +7.8 21.7% −7.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
14.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jack Rankin Elected Conservative 16,483 36.4
Pavitar Mann Labour 10,026 22.2
Julian Tisi Lib Dems 9,539 21.1
Harl Grewal Reform UK 4,660 10.3
Michael Boyle Green 2,288 5.1
David Buckley Other 1,629 3.6
Simran Dhillon Other 621 1.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,585
Median age
40
Employment rate
73.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029