Riding profile

Windsor

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Windsor: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.1%
  • Reform UK 20.9%
  • Lib Dems 19.4%
  • Labour 14.1%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Other 5.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereWindsor 30.1%20.9%19.4%14.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +10.7 25.4% −4.5 11.4% +8.0 21.8% −7.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Windsor, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 21% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jack Rankin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
14.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jack Rankin Elected Conservative 16,483 36.4 —
Pavitar Mann Labour 10,026 22.2 —
Julian Tisi Lib Dems 9,539 21.1 —
Harl Grewal Reform UK 4,660 10.3 —
Michael Boyle Green 2,288 5.1 —
David Buckley Other 1,629 3.6 —
Simran Dhillon Other 621 1.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,585
Median age
40
Employment rate
73.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029