Riding profile
Beaconsfield
The question
Beaconsfield: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Beaconsfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Joy Morrissey
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBeaconsfield | 31.4% | 24.2% | 23.1% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +12.5 | 25.3% −1.1 | 11.6% +11.4 | 11.8% −2.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joy Morrissey Elected | Conservative | 18,494 | 38.8 | — |
| Anna Crabtree | Lib Dems | 13,039 | 27.3 | — |
| Matthew Patterson | Labour | 7,216 | 15.1 | — |
| John Halsall | Reform UK | 6,055 | 12.7 | — |
| Dominick Pegram | Green | 1,977 | 4.1 | — |
| Pippa Allen | Other | 710 | 1.5 | — |
| Catherine Harker | Other | 131 | 0.3 | — |
| Cole Caesar | Other | 104 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029