Riding profile

Beaconsfield

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Beaconsfield: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 33.5%
  • Lib Dems 23.3%
  • Reform UK 22.9%
  • Labour 8.8%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Other 3.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Lib Dems Reform UK Labour
HereBeaconsfield 33.5%23.3%22.9%8.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +14.2 11.4% +11.9 25.4% −2.5 21.8% −13.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Beaconsfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 34% vote share, against 23% for the Lib Dems, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Joy Morrissey

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joy Morrissey Elected Conservative 18,494 38.8 —
Anna Crabtree Lib Dems 13,039 27.3 —
Matthew Patterson Labour 7,216 15.1 —
John Halsall Reform UK 6,055 12.7 —
Dominick Pegram Green 1,977 4.1 —
Pippa Allen Other 710 1.5 —
Catherine Harker Other 131 0.3 —
Cole Caesar Other 104 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,257
Median age
45
Employment rate
83.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029