Riding profile

Maidenhead

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Maidenhead: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 39.4%
  • Conservative 30.1%
  • Reform UK 12.0%
  • Green 7.1%
  • Labour 6.8%
  • Other 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereMaidenhead 39.4%30.1%12.0%7.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +28.1 19.3% +10.8 25.4% −13.4 10.8% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Maidenhead, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Joshua Reynolds

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
5.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joshua Reynolds Elected Lib Dems 21,895 43.5 —
Tania Mathias Conservative 18,932 37.6 —
Jo Smith Labour 5,766 11.5 —
Andrew Cooney Green 1,996 4.0 —
George Wright Other 791 1.6 —
Tim Burt Other 518 1.0 —
Qazi Irshad Other 431 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,091
Median age
42
Employment rate
81.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029