Riding profile

Maidenhead

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Maidenhead: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Maidenhead, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 35% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Mr Joshua Reynolds

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
17%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 35.4%
  • Conservative 30.2%
  • Reform UK 14.1%
  • Labour 8.7%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Other 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereMaidenhead 35.4%30.2%14.1%8.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +23.8 18.9% +11.3 25.3% −11.3 21.7% −13.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
5.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joshua Reynolds Elected Lib Dems 21,895 43.5
Tania Mathias Conservative 18,932 37.6
Jo Smith Labour 5,766 11.5
Andrew Cooney Green 1,996 4.0
George Wright Other 791 1.6
Tim Burt Other 518 1.0
Qazi Irshad Other 431 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,091
Median age
42
Employment rate
81.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029