Riding profile

Bracknell

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Bracknell: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.8%
  • Conservative 26.8%
  • Labour 19.8%
  • Lib Dems 12.4%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereBracknell 27.8%26.8%19.8%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +2.5 19.3% +7.5 21.8% −2.0 11.4% +1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bracknell, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Peter Swallow

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Swallow Elected Labour 14,783 33.7
James Sunderland Conservative 13,999 31.9
Malcolm Tullett Reform UK 7,445 17.0
Katie Mansfield Lib Dems 4,768 10.9
Emily Torode Green 2,166 4.9
Olivio Barreto Other 480 1.1
Jason Reardon Other 196 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,980
Median age
38
Employment rate
83.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029