Riding profile
Surrey Heath
The question
Surrey Heath: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Surrey Heath, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dr Al Pinkerton
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSurrey Heath | 35.8% | 26.4% | 23.4% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +24.2 | 18.9% +7.5 | 25.3% −1.9 | 11.8% −5.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Pinkerton Elected | Lib Dems | 21,387 | 44.8 | — |
| Ed McGuinness | Conservative | 15,747 | 33.0 | — |
| Sam Goggin | Reform UK | 6,252 | 13.1 | — |
| Jessica Hammersley-Rich | Labour | 3,148 | 6.6 | — |
| Jon Campbell | Green | 1,162 | 2.4 | — |
| Elizabeth Wallitt | Other | 92 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029