Riding profile

Surrey Heath

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Surrey Heath: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 39.7%
  • Conservative 26.3%
  • Reform UK 22.8%
  • Green 5.9%
  • Labour 3.4%
  • Other 1.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereSurrey Heath 39.7%26.3%22.8%5.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +28.3 19.3% +6.9 25.4% −2.6 10.8% −4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Surrey Heath, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 40% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Al Pinkerton

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
11.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Al Pinkerton Elected Lib Dems 21,387 44.8 —
Ed McGuinness Conservative 15,747 33.0 —
Sam Goggin Reform UK 6,252 13.1 —
Jessica Hammersley-Rich Labour 3,148 6.6 —
Jon Campbell Green 1,162 2.4 —
Elizabeth Wallitt Other 92 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,933
Median age
43
Employment rate
85.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029