Riding profile

Godalming and Ash

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Godalming and Ash: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 35.6%
  • Conservative 35.4%
  • Reform UK 17.8%
  • Green 6.2%
  • Labour 3.0%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereGodalming and Ash 35.6%35.4%17.8%6.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +24.2 19.3% +16.1 25.4% −7.6 10.8% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Godalming and Ash, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 35% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Jeremy Hunt

Sits with Conservative

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
1.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeremy Hunt Elected Conservative 23,293 42.6
Paul Follows Lib Dems 22,402 41.0
Graham Drage Reform UK 4,815 8.8
James Walsh Labour 2,748 5.0
Ruby Tucker Green 1,243 2.3
Harriet Williams Other 195 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,131
Median age
44
Employment rate
84.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029