Riding profile

Farnham and Bordon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Farnham and Bordon: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 29.4%
  • Conservative 29.4%
  • Reform UK 21.4%
  • Green 9.2%
  • Labour 8.4%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereFarnham and Bordon 29.4%29.4%21.4%9.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +18.0 19.3% +10.1 25.4% −4.0 10.8% −1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Farnham and Bordon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Gregory Stafford

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Greg Stafford Elected Conservative 18,951 35.8 —
Khalil Yousuf Lib Dems 17,602 33.2 —
Alex Just Labour 7,328 13.8 —
Ged Hall Reform UK 6,217 11.7 —
Claire Matthes Green 2,496 4.7 —
Don Jerrard Other 421 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,699
Median age
44
Employment rate
75.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029