Riding profile

Farnham and Bordon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Farnham and Bordon: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Farnham and Bordon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Gregory Stafford

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 30.0%
  • Conservative 28.1%
  • Reform UK 23.0%
  • Labour 8.5%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Other 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereFarnham and Bordon 30.0%28.1%23.0%8.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +18.4 18.9% +9.2 25.3% −2.3 21.7% −13.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Greg Stafford Elected Conservative 18,951 35.8
Khalil Yousuf Lib Dems 17,602 33.2
Alex Just Labour 7,328 13.8
Ged Hall Reform UK 6,217 11.7
Claire Matthes Green 2,496 4.7
Don Jerrard Other 421 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,699
Median age
44
Employment rate
75.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029