Riding profile
Aldershot
The question
Aldershot: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Aldershot, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alex Baker
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.5
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAldershot | 28.6% | 25.3% | 24.0% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.3 | 21.7% +3.6 | 18.9% +5.1 | 11.6% −1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Baker Elected | Labour | 19,764 | 40.7 | — |
| Leo Docherty | Conservative | 14,081 | 29.0 | — |
| Trevor Lloyd-Jones | Reform UK | 8,210 | 16.9 | — |
| Paul Harris | Lib Dems | 4,052 | 8.3 | — |
| Ed Neville | Green | 2,155 | 4.4 | — |
| Steve James-Bailey | Other | 282 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029