Riding profile

Wokingham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Wokingham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 43.6%
  • Conservative 25.8%
  • Reform UK 18.7%
  • Green 7.0%
  • Labour 3.6%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereWokingham 43.6%25.8%18.7%7.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +32.3 19.3% +6.5 25.4% −6.7 10.8% −3.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wokingham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 44% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Clive Jones

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
15.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Clive Jones Elected Lib Dems 25,743 47.7 —
Lucy Demery Conservative 17,398 32.2 —
Colin Wright Reform UK 5,274 9.8 —
Monica Hamidi Labour 3,631 6.7 —
Merv Boniface Green 1,953 3.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,084
Median age
42
Employment rate
75.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029