Riding profile

Wokingham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Wokingham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Wokingham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 38% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Clive Jones

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 38.2%
  • Conservative 25.8%
  • Reform UK 20.1%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Labour 6.6%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereWokingham 38.2%25.8%20.1%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +26.5 18.9% +6.9 25.3% −5.3 11.8% −3.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
15.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Clive Jones Elected Lib Dems 25,743 47.7
Lucy Demery Conservative 17,398 32.2
Colin Wright Reform UK 5,274 9.8
Monica Hamidi Labour 3,631 6.7
Merv Boniface Green 1,953 3.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,084
Median age
42
Employment rate
75.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029