Riding profile

Earley and Woodley

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Earley and Woodley: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?

Editorial read

Earley and Woodley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yuan Yang

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.3%
  • Labour 25.9%
  • Reform UK 14.4%
  • Lib Dems 13.5%
  • Green 12.2%
  • Other 2.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Lib Dems
HereEarley and Woodley 31.3%25.9%14.4%13.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +12.4 21.7% +4.3 25.3% −10.9 11.6% +1.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yuan Yang Elected Labour 18,209 39.7
Pauline Jorgensen Conservative 17,361 37.8
Tahir Maher Lib Dems 6,142 13.4
Gary Shacklady Green 3,418 7.4
Alastair Hunter Other 784 1.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,434
Median age
38
Employment rate
78.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029