Riding profile

Earley and Woodley

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Earley and Woodley: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.6%
  • Labour 23.8%
  • Reform UK 14.5%
  • Lib Dems 14.5%
  • Green 12.0%
  • Other 3.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Lib Dems
HereEarley and Woodley 31.6%23.8%14.5%14.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.3 21.8% +2.0 25.4% −10.8 11.4% +3.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Earley and Woodley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yuan Yang

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yuan Yang Elected Labour 18,209 39.7 —
Pauline Jorgensen Conservative 17,361 37.8 —
Tahir Maher Lib Dems 6,142 13.4 —
Gary Shacklady Green 3,418 7.4 —
Alastair Hunter Other 784 1.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,434
Median age
38
Employment rate
78.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029